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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The second quarter was marked by sharp market volatility driven by aggressive tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the middle east. However, by the end of the quarter, stocks recovered most of their losses before making new highs.
- The market’s reaction prompted the government to change trade policies later in the quarter. Tariffs are expected to settle at the highest rate since the 1930’s.
- As a result of the ever-changing trade policy, there is considerable uncertainty in the economy. Companies are swinging into action, proactively restructuring their supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts. Earnings are expected to continue growing but at a slower pace than previously expected.
- The Federal Reserve is in a difficult spot, having to decide between controlling prices and supporting employment. They have indicated that, depending on economic data, they will gradually lower interest rates.
- This quarter showed the importance of focusing on long-term results and the futility of trying to forecast events such as trade policies or expectations of recessions.