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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- In the first quarter, US stocks fell, but non-US stocks and bonds appreciated.
- The US economy had been faring well with sturdy growth, plentiful jobs and declining inflation, before the uncertainty brought about by trade tariffs.
- Survey data from consumers and businesses shows a significant decline in sentiment in response to tariffs.
- Initial calculations show that tariffs will lead to a decrease in economic growth around the world.
- The impact of various events on stock prices could be surprising sometimes. For example, stocks of the primary targets for tariffs in March—Canada, Mexico, and China—were up for the year. This is because market prices incorporate the aggregate expectations of investors.
- Over the long term, turbulence in the market such as the one we are currently experiencing seems like a blip in the long-term graph of stock appreciation.
- Successful investing requires one to capitalize on the favorable long-term odds and protect permanent loss from the unfavorable short-term odds, by creating diversified, resilient portfolios and good planning.